Egypt’s general government gross debt to GDP ratio is expected to jump to 94 percent in 2022, up from 93.5 percent in 2021, before winding down to 89.6 percent in 2023 and then declining to 80.7 percent by 2027, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.
In its Fiscal Monitor Report, the IMF projected the general government’s net debt to GDP ratio to rise to 89.1 percent in 2022, up from 2021’s 88.6 percent, expecting it to continue its downturn through 2027 to reach 75.8 percent.
According to the latest figures published by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), the country’s total external debt jumped to EGP 145.5 billion in the second quarter (2Q) of the current FY2021/22 — October to December 2021 — up from the EGP 137.4 billion recorded in 1Q.
The IMF report also expected Egypt’s gross financial needs to record 35.8 percent of the GDP amid the ongoing economic challenges.
According to the report, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict represents an urgent challenge for governments globally as the risk of and the consequences of imposing economic sanctions on Russia has triggered major disruptions in commodity markets.
“Russia accounts for about 45 percent of the EU’s total gas imports and 10 percent of global oil exports. In food markets, Russia and Ukraine account for one quarter of global wheat, one-seventh of corn, and three-quarters of sunflower oils exports,” the report said.
“Since the war started, supply disruptions have steepened the rising trends in energy and food prices. The broad-based food price index of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the UU reached its all-time high since the index was introduced in 1990. Commodity prices are also more volatile,” it explained.
Moreover, the increase in food prices is expected to amplify amid fertiliser shortages, as Russia and Belarus account for one-fifth of global fertiliser exports, especially potassic fertilizers — representing one-third of global trade — and nitrogenous fertilisers.
