Chinese infrastructure lending to African countries is widely expected to slow over the next 1-2 years amid mounting debt sustainability concerns.
This would mark a dramatic change over the past twenty years when Beijing emerged as a key source of development finance that helped Africa close its gaping $100 billion-a-year infrastructure deficit.
From 2000 to 2018, China extended $148bn of loans, mostly for infrastructure development, according to data from the China-Africa Research Initiative.
But now, as a growing number of those countries are struggling to repay their debts, Chinese creditors are becoming understandably cautious about providing new loans to borrowers facing considerable financial duress.
At least 18 countries are currently renegotiating debts with China, with 12 others still in talks to restructure an estimated $28bn of Chinese loans, according to the New York-based consultancy Rhodium Group.
While it’s not expected that Chinese financing will completely dry up, future loans will likely be smaller, less risky and require more comprehensive feasibility plans than what had been accepted in the past.
